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Page managed by UA6JD Lookups: 9059

 
Solar activity suddenly weakened during this bulletin's reporting period, January 9-15, and the lower activity and expectations continue. Average daily sunspot numbers declined from 188.1 to 111.4, and average daily solar flux went from 201.6 to 155.4. Those drops compare the January 9-15 period to the January 2-8 week. Daily sunspot numbers dipped below 100, to 95, 87 and 77 on January 14-16.

The latest prediction doesn't look promising, at least if we are hoping to sustain the recent increased activity of January 4-7. It shows solar flux at 120 on January 16, 118 on January 17, 115 on January 19-20, 112 on January 21-23, then 115, 130, 135 and 145 on January 24-27, and 155 on January 28-29. It then climbs to a peak of 180 between February 2-5, and declines to a minimum of 125 February 17-20. By minimum, this does not mean that solar flux is predicted to be at least 125 on those dates, but rather another low point before rising again to around 180 about six weeks from now.

Predicted planetary A index is 12 and 10 on January 17-18, 5 on January 19-23, 8 on January 24, 5 on January 25-27, then 10, 18 and 8 on January 28-30, 5 on January 31 through February 6, then 8, 8 and 6 on February 7-9, then back to 5 for the following nine days.

 

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7422924 Last modified: 2016-07-04 06:04:55, 5551 bytes

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